相对地位变化对中国省际能源消耗的影响机制

由于在现有政治晋升体制中,各省在经济增长和节能降耗过程中对竞争地位的追求,导致各省的相对地位在能源消耗决策过程中起到十分重要的作用。本文基于中国省际政府官员考核和晋升机制现实背景,从相对身份效应理论的角度构建了省际能源消耗的理论模型,探讨了相对地位、地位变化对省际能源消耗的影响机制,具体表现为各省能源消耗的当期和上一期相对地位对能源强度具有行为理论上决策作用机制,当期人均GDP增速与上一期人均GDP绝对水平对能源强度具有行为意义上的理论解释机制,省际能源消耗具有的动态自适应机制。在理论分析基础上,进一步实证检验了省际能源消耗的相对身份效应理论,实证结果表明:(1)各省在当期能耗排名上竞争对节能具有积极作用,上一期能耗排名越靠后的省份在当期节能降耗的动机比排名靠前的省份更强烈,从而使得当期能耗下降。此外,在不同的考核时期和不同节能任务要求下,能耗排序对节能的影响存在差异,该影响也因各省所处相对位置高、低而不同。(2)当期经济增长与当期能源消耗呈现出同向变化的互补机制,上期经济增长与当期能源消耗呈现出反向变化的替代机制。(3)上一期能源强度下降会降低当期能源强度,省际能源强度存在着逐渐下降的动态自适应机制。基于此,我国对地方政府节能降耗的政策设计应当实施多节能目标、多奖惩措施的差异化模式,从而实现不同类别省份的有效节能和粗放型经济增长方式的快速转型。

Relative status change and mechanism of Chinese provincial energy consumption

Because the Chinese prospects of political promotion incentive system,the provinces pursuit competitive status in the process of economic growth and energy consumption,leading to the provincial relative status playing a very important role in the decision-making of the energy consumption.Based on the realistic background on the government official assessment policy and prospects of political promotion incentive system,this paper constructs a model of provincial energy consumption from the point of the relative identity effect theory,and discusses the mechanism of the relative status,status change influencing provincial energy consumption.Specifically,the current and previous relative status of the provincial energy consumption have behavioral decisionmaking power to energy intensity.The growth rate and level value of the current per capita GDP have behavioral explanation power to energy intensity.Provincial energy consumption have a dynamic adaptive mechanism.Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper tests the relative identity effect theory in the provincial energy consumption.The empirical results are as follows.Firstly,the provinces competing for the current ranking plays a positive role for energy saving,and the provinces which in the lower ranking in the previous period have the stronger motivation for energy saving,so the current energy consumption decreases.In different periods of assessment and the different energy saving mission requirements,the ranking of energy consumption has different impacts for energy saving,and the impact is also due to the relative high or low position.Secondly,the current economic growth and the current energy consumption change in the same direction,which presents a complementary mechanism.The previous economic growth and the current energy consumption change in the opposite direction,which presents an alternative mechanism.Lastly,the reduction of previous energy intensity decreases the current energy intensity,which presents the dynamic adaptive mechanism.Based on that,the policy for energy saving should implement more energy-saving targets and the variation pattern of rewards and punishments measures,so as to realize the effective energy saving and the rapid transformation of the extensive economic growth mode.