中国省际间绿色发展福利测量与评价

在绿色发展理念下,对绿色发展福利进行测量和评价比传统的GDP评价更能体现发展的质量。本文基于生态绩效理论,将绿色发展福利增长速度推导为脱钩指数与GDP增长速度的乘积。首先以人类发展指数作为绿色发展福利的判别标准,根据脱钩指数理论,以数值0和0.1为界线,将2002—2014年中国31个省份的绿色发展福利水平划分为"负福利增长"、"绝对低福利增长"、"相对低福利增长"三类。其次,利用数据包络分析(DEA)方法及Malmquist指数测度兼顾期望产出(GDP)与非期望产出(生态足迹)的绿色经济增长,并对中国省际绿色经济增长效率进行分解,将绿色全要素生产率分为技术效率变动、技术变动、纯技术效率变动和规模效率变动,以探讨影响中国绿色发展"C"模式的关键因素。实证结果表明:中国大陆31个省份的脱钩指数均小于0.6(两个省份的脱钩指数小于0),处于低福利增长状态,但是整体上省际间脱钩指数与GDP增长速度呈现正相关关系,省际间人类发展指数的差异主要表现在公平的教育机会与收入分配差距两个方面。对中国大陆31个省份绿色经济增长速度的分解表明,绿色全要素生产率的提升主要得益于技术效率变动、纯技术效率变动、规模效率变动指数的提高,且每个时期三者的贡献率均在1左右波动。检验期间,北京、上海、广东、天津四个省份作为"创新者"共同推动产出朝着最优生产前沿面外移。最后,为了构筑中国绿色发展"C"模式,认为应该以绿色发展福利水平的提升为导向,在依据绿色全要素生产率提高绿色经济增长效率的同时,应注重教育公平与收入分配差距的缩减。同时,应积极发挥创新者省份绿色发展的示范效应,带动非创新者省份共同发展。

Green development welfare measurement and evaluation among China's provinces

Under the concept of green development,the measurement and evaluation of green development welfare can more efficiently reflect the quality of development than the traditional GDP evaluation.Based on the theory of ecological performance,this paper uses green development welfare growth as the multiplier of the decoupling index and GDP growth speed.First,it takes Human Development Index as the judgment standard of green development welfare,according to the theory of decoupling index lined with the number 0 and 0.1.Then,the green development welfare level of China's 31 provinces from 2002 to 2014 is divided into negative welfare growth,absolute low welfare growth,and relatively low welfare growth.Second,it uses the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist index to measure both expected output (GDP) and the expected output (ecological footprint) of green economic growth.Meanwhile,it decomposes the efficiency of green economic growth among Chinese provinces,and divide Green Total Factor Productivity into technical efficiency change,technical change,the change of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency change,in order to investigate the key factors that influence on the'C'pattern of Chinese green development.The empirical results show that the decoupling index is less than 0.6 among the China's 29 provinces (two provinces of decoupling index less than zero),at the low welfare growth state,but on the whole provinces decoupling index presents a positive correlation with GDP growth.The Human Development Index differences among the China's 31 provinces are mainly embodied in equal opportunity to education and income distribution gap.The decomposition of green economic growth rate in China's 31 provinces shows that scale efficiency,pure technical efficiency and technical efficiency are the key factors to affect Green Total Factor Productivity and the contribution rate of each period is generally around 1.During the inspection,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong and Tianjin are four innovator provinces,and jointly promote the output to shift toward the optimal production frontier outward.Finally,in order to construct the'C'pattern of Chinese Green development,authors think that development should be guided by the promotion of green development welfare,according to the green Total Factor Productivity to promote green economy benefit,and at the same time,we should pay attention to the education equity and the reduction of income distribution gap.Besides,innovator provinces should actively play the role of the green development demonstration in the development of common provinces.