东营市海岸带区域综合承载力评估

随着人类对海岸带开发强度的不断提高,海岸带资源、环境问题日益突出,海岸带可持续发展成为人类共识,海岸带区域综合承载力研究作为该区域可持续发展的基础性研究,可以为海岸带区域合理开发与管理提供重要理论支撑。本文选取东营市海岸带为研究区域,以海岸带湿地遥感解译数据、浅海水质监测数据及社会经济统计数据为数据源,运用状态空间法计算了研究区2010—2014年海岸带区域的综合承载力;对东营市与潍坊市、滨州市的海岸带区域综合承载力进行了比较分析;预测了2016—2020年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力;依据研究结果探讨了海岸带可持续利用的未来途径。结果表明:在过去的2010—2014年和预测的2016—2020年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力均处于超载状态,但总趋势是向好的;同时,2010—2014年东营市海岸带在吸引外资、港口发展、海岸带生态系统服务价值、浅海海域水环境方面具有明显优势,但社会公共服务投入不平衡、不稳定。与2016—2020年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力预测结果相比较而言,2011年东营市海岸带区域综合承载力超载最明显,与该年环境压力大和社会投入不足有关。2014年东营市各县区海岸带区域综合承载力均处于超载状态,广饶县超载最明显;同时各县区自然、社会、经济发展水平差异较大,市辖区社会经济指标优于各县区。东营市海岸带区域综合承载力相比潍坊市、滨州市在资源、环境、生态方面具有明显优势,但在社会支撑方面投入不足,因此可以通过保持资源、生态优势,弥补社会投入不足等措施提高东营市海岸带可持续利用水平。

Comprehensive carrying capacity assessment of Dongying Coastal zone

With the continuous improvement of human development intensity in coastal zone, coastal resources, environmental issues have become increasingly prominent.Human beings agree on sustainable development.The research on regional comprehensive carrying capacity can provide important theoretical support for the rational development and management of coastal zone as the fundamental research of regional sustainable development.This article selected Dongying City Coastal Zone as the study area with coastal wetland remote sensing interpretation data, shallow sea water quality monitoring data and socio-economic statistics to calculate the comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying City Coastal Zone using state space method from 2010 to 2014.Then it compared comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying City Coastal zone with Weifang and Binzhou, and predicted the trend of comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying Coastal Zone from 2016 to 2020.The results show that: The comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying coastal zone from 2010 to 2014 and the predicted trend from 2016 to 2020 are all overloaded, but the trend is gradually to sustainable tend.At the same time, coast of Dongying City has obvious advantages of attracting foreign investment, port development, coastal zone ecosystem service value, shallow sea water environment in 2010-2014, but investment in public social service were unbalanced and unstable.Compared with the prediction result of Dongying city coastal zone comprehensive carrying capacity from 2016-2020, the coast of Dongying City comprehensive carrying capacity is the most obvious overloaded in 2011, and it was about the pressure of environment and insufficient social investment.As for each county of Dongying City coastal zone of comprehensive carrying capacity are quite different in 2014, and the comprehensive carrying capacity of Guangrao County coastal zone was significantly overloaded.At the same time, each county was different in nature, society and economic development, and city social economy index was better than the counties.Dongying Coastal Zone has obvious advantages in resources, environment, ecology comprehensive carrying capacity compared to Weifang, Binzhou City, but it lacks of investment in terms of social support.So it can keep advantages in resources, environment, ecology and enhance social investment to compensate public services to improve sustainable use in Dongying City coastal zone.