产业资源相对承载力视角下民族地区产业发展与经济增长路径研究

使用1996—2014年我国民族8省区的面板数据,构建产业资源相对承载力模型及产业发展库兹涅茨曲线模型,对区域产业发展、经济增长、产业资源相对承载能力三者之间的关系及其动态变化进行分析。研究发现,我国民族地区三次产业综合资源相对承载力约为32 784.7万人,状态均小于0,呈富裕状态,平均富裕人口约13 817.53万人,平均富裕率高达72.82%。其中第一产业资源相对承载力对区域综合产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为46.18%,第二产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为44.38%,第三产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为9.43%;第三产业资源相对承载力增长速度最快,增长率高达32.68%。产业发展初期,第一产业经济拉动效果最为显著。从产业持续发展与经济增长动态关系来看,第一产业发展呈"倒U型"库兹涅茨曲线关系;第二产业发展呈二次曲线正相关上升部分关系;第三产业发展呈"U型"曲线的关系。基于产业资源相对承载力视角,民族地区产业发展应当遵循如下发展路径:第一产业应当在保证粮食等必要初级产品供给安全的前提下,调整结构,以特色资源为引导,进一步扩大产业特色资源的规模效益;第二产业必须以转变发展方式为主要任务,走集约发展路线,以产业资源承载能力及生态承载力为红线,保持产业适度规模;第三产业发展应当以扩大规模,提高质量,提升产业资源承载能力为主要任务,充分释放产业资源的资本化能力,推动经济发展。

A study on industry development in ethnic regions and methods of economic growth in the respective of the relative carrying capacity of industry resources

Based on panel data from 1996 to 2014 in eight ethnic regions,this article constructed the model of relative carrying capacity of industry resources and Kuznets curve model of industry development,and did an analysis on the relationship between regional industry development,economic growth and the relative carrying capacity of industry resources and their dynamic change.Research showed that the comprehensive carrying capacity of three industry resources in ethnic regions had the population of 327.847 million,the state was below zero and it was in a rich state,the average rich population was 138.175 3 million and the average rich rate was 72.82％.Among them,the average contribution rate of the carrying capacity of the primary industry resources to the carrying capacity of regional comprehensive industry resources was 46.18％,the average contribution rate of the carrying capacity of the secondary industry resources was 44.38％,and the average contribution rate of the carrying capacity of the tertiary industry resources was 9.43％.The growth rate of the carrying capacity of the tertiary industry resources was the fastest,up to 32.68％.In the preliminary stage of industry development,the primary industry contributed most to economic growth;In terms of sustainable development of industry,the development of the primary industry shows a relation of Kuznets curve in an inverted U shape,the development of the secondary industry presented a relation of the rising part of the positive correlation of two curves,and the development of the tertiary industry showed a relation of U shape.Based on the perspective of the carrying capacity of industry resources,the industry development in ethnic regions should follow the following development paths:the primary industry should adjust structure and further expand scale merit of characteristic resources in the industry under the guidance of characteristic resources on the condition that the supply of primary goods (such as grains) should be secured;the main task of secondary industry is to transform the ways of development and follow the path of intensive development,its redline is the carrying capacity of industry resources and ecology,and the scale of industry should be kept properly;the tertiary industry should aim at expanding scale,improving quality and upgrading the carrying capacity of industry resources,fully releasing capitalization capacity of industry resources and boosting economy.