丹江口库区可持续发展能力分析

从区域可持续发展的角度出发，以湖北省丹江口库区为例，首先定性分析库区可持续发展的优势与问题，认为库区移民安置工作困难，库区可持续发展受到限制；经济增长缓慢，基础设施建设滞后；城镇化水平较低，库区社会矛盾突出；自然资源丰富与开发不足并存，库区淹没加剧土地资源稀缺；环境质量较好，生态基础脆弱。然后采用多因素综合评价模型定量分析了1999～2005年库区可持续发展的变化趋势。结果表明：库区可持续发展能力从1999年到2003年呈现明显的上升趋势，却从2004年开始缓慢下降；而人口、经济、社会、资源和环境各子系统也呈现出不同的特征。最后针对定性和定量评价结果提出相应的对策建议：做好库区移民安置，实现移民稳定就业；减少和消除移民贫困，增加基础设施建设；加快小城镇建设步伐，解决库区社会矛盾；发挥水资源优势，改善库区生态环境。

ANALYSIS ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITY IN THE AMBIENT AREA OF DANJIANGKOU RESERVOIR

Based on regional sustainable development and evidence from the ambient area of Danjiangkou reservoir in Hubei province,an overall evaluation of sustainable development capability of the reservoir ambient area was analyzed in this paper.The results showed that the difficulties of resettlement restricted sustainable development of the reservoir ambient area;the economy growth was slow and construction of infrastructure was lag;the level of urbanization was lower and social contradictions of the reservoir ambient area were obviously;abundance of nature resource and shortage of exploitation coexisted and land resource reduced due to submergence of reservoir ambient area;the quality of environment is better but the ecological basis is flimsy.Using synthesized multiple factor evaluation models the trend of sustainable development capability of the reservoir ambient area from 1999 to 2005 was evaluated in this paper.The results showed that sustainable development capability of reservoir ambient area manifested constant increase trend from 1999 to 2003,but it began to descend smoothly from 2004.The subsystems of population,economy,society,resource and environment presented different characters.Finally,development countermeasures were put forward: undertaking resettlement of people from inundation area and helping them to take employment;reducing and eliminating the poverty of the reservoir resettlement and enhancing investment of infrastructure;speeding up the urbanization step and relieving social contradictions of the reservoir ambient area;utilizing the advantage of water resource and improving ecological environment of the reservoir ambient area.