过犹不及:土地资源资本化与实体经济发展

在经济转型发展战略背景下,探讨土地资源资本化及其对实体经济发展的影响具有重要理论和现实意义。不同于已有研究均质化地理解土地资本化,该研究从"度"的视角切入,认为土地资本化存在适度与过度之分,由此分析了不同程度土地资本化对实体经济的影响,并基于中国工业企业微观数据予以实证考察,最后讨论了中国当前土地过度资本化风险与原因。研究表明:(1)土地资本化存在限度,限度范围内促进实体经济增长,越过限度则抑制实体经济增长,两者呈"倒U型"关系,该结论在多种模型设定下均保持稳健;(2)当土地资本化越过最优限度,将激起全要素成本快速上涨,导致利润空间收窄,引致实体经济萎缩;(3)从工业企业大样本微观数据估计出的"倒U型"拐点来判断,当前中国城市经济已面临较严重的土地过度资本化问题,东中西部相继进入过度资本化高风险状态,这可能损害实体经济而影响中国经济的增长前景;(4)进一步的分析表明,中国式分权造成的地方政府"为增长而竞争"可能是土地资本化持续深化乃至过度化的重要原因,调整政治激励方式应是寻求土地过度资本化理性回归的着力点。研究提供了重要政策启示:土地资本化是一把"双刃剑",趋利避害的关键是把握"度"的原则;中国必须通过深化政绩考核、土地市场和土地税制等多方面协同改革来纠正土地过度资本化偏向;面向高质量发展与实体经济转型升级,主动转变土地资本化支撑方式,改革土地资本收益支出结构,加快支出重心向新基建、科教部门和民生部门转移。

Land capitalization and development of the real economy

In the context of economic transformation,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the impact of landcapitalization on real economic growth.Different from the homogenized understanding of land capitalization,this paper proposes thatcase of land capitalization can be divided into moderate and excessive ones.Following this view,this paper first theoretically analyzesthe impact of different degrees of land capitalization on the real economy,then makes an empirical study based on the micro data of Chi-nese industrial enterprises,and finally analyzes the current risks and reasons of excessive land capitalization in China.The results showthat the degree of land capitalization and the real economy present an inverted U-shaped relationship.Excessive capitalization exceed-ing the limit will promote the rise of total factor costs,thereby inhibiting the growth of the real economy.Judging from the inverted U-shaped turning point estimated by empirical data,the current urban economy is already facing a serious problem of excessive land capi-talization in China,which may harm the real economy and affect the growth prospects of the Chinese economy.Further analysis showsthat Chinese-style decentralization may be the institutional reason for the excessive deepening of land capitalization.This paper pro-vides important policy implications:Land capitalization is a double-edged sword,and the key to gaining benefits and avoiding harm isto control the degree of capitalization.China must carry out the coordinated reform of performance appraisal,land market and land taxsystem to correct excessive land capitalization.In order to achieve high-quality development and the transformation and upgrading ofthe real economy,China should take the initiative to change the support mode of land capitalization,reform the expenditure structure ofland capital gains,and increase the expenditure on new infrastructure,science and education,and people,s livelihood.