Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California |
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Authors: | Haiganoush K. Preisler Shiyuan Zhong Annie Esperanza Timothy J. Brown Andrzej Bytnerowicz |
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Affiliation: | a USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 800 Buchanan St, Albany, CA 94710, USA b Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 116 Geography Building, East Lansing, MI 48824-1117, USA c Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, 47050 Generals Highway Three Rivers, CA 93271, USA d Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89521-10095, USA e USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA 92507, USA f Yosemite National Park, El Portal, CA 95318, USA |
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Abstract: | Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an important source of pollution in these National Parks. Comparisons of forecasted and observed values demonstrated that accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels may be achieved by using a time series model with historic averages, expected local weather and modeled PM values as explanatory variables. Results on fire smoke influence indicated occurrence of significant increases in average ozone levels with increasing fire activity. The overall effect on diurnal ozone values, however, was small when compared with the amount of variability attributed to sources other than fire. |
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Keywords: | BlueSky California air-quality standard Next-day ozone forecasts Air pollution Fire smoke Regression models Spline functions Time series |
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