基于系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析

产业用水结构的欠合理一定程度上制约着社会的发展,如何科学评价产业用水情况,取得在经济效益、水资源和环境资源约束下的协调发展已成为目前区域社会经济发展面临与亟待解答的科学问题。以江苏省为例,提出了系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法,在构建反映产业结构、用水结构和排污结构的互动反馈的水资源综合利用系统动力学模型基础上,通过敏感性分析确定对系统影响较大的关键变量,运用投入产出分析技术,对江苏省各部门用水特性、排污特性和经济效益特性进行计算测度,由此构建了3种产业发展模拟方案。依据系统动力学模型输出结果,对2025年3种方案下的重点产业部门用水综合效用情况进行对比分析,进而优选出"节水治污型"方案,并最后提出保障方案实施的对策建议,为江苏省产业和用水结构调整提供决策依据。

ANALYSIS OF COMPREHENSIVE UTILITY OF WATER UTILIZATION STRUCTURE BASED ON THE INTEGRATION METHODS OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC AND INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

The unreasonable water utilization structure of industry restricts the development of society to a certain extent. How to evaluate the circumstance of water utilization of industry scientifically and secure coordinated development under the restriction of economic benefits, water resources and environment resources have become a technical issue that socioeconomic development has faced and with the urgent need to answer. This paper takes Jiangsu province as an example and puts forward the integration methods of system dynamic and input-output analysis. The interactive model of system dynamics of water resources composite utilization was conducted which reflects the structure of industry, water utilization and sewage drainage. We determine the critical variables which affect the system significantly through sensitivity analysis. The technology of input-output analysis was used to analyze the water utilization characteristics, pollution features and economic benefits features to build the simulation schemes of industrial development. Combined with the system dynamics model output, the comprehensive water utility of key industrial sectors in the year 2025 was analyzed and compared under three kinds of development schemes. Furthermore, the program of "water saving and control pollution" was selected as an optimal scheme. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to protect the implementation of the scheme and provide decision-making basis for industrial upgrading and restructuring of water utilization for Jiangsu province.