武汉城市圈水资源及水环境承载力分析

水资源及水环境承载力是衡量区域可持续发展的一项重要指标,对区域经济的发展规划具有重要的指导意义。以可承载的人口数量和GDP作为承载力的表征指标,分别运用单位GDP综合用水量评判法和河流一维水质模型及湖库均匀混合模型计算武汉城市圈不同水平年的水资源及水环境承载力,并用承载度来评价水资源及水环境的承载状态。结果表明:2012、2020和2030年武汉城市圈水资源承载力都处于合理承载状态,但是其水环境承载力处于轻度超载状态。可见,水环境承载力对武汉城市圈的用水限制更为严格。随着社会经济的发展及污水处理技术的进步,水环境状况虽然会有所好转,但与水资源数量这一因素相比,水环境仍是制约武汉城市圈经济社会发展的关键因素。

RESEARCH ON WATER RESOURCES AND WATER ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITIES OF WUHAN CITY CIRCLE

Water resources and water environment carrying capacity are important indicators for measuring regional sustainable developmentand are very important to the development of regional economy. Here we took the population and GDP as the bearing capacity to calculate water resources and water environment carrying capacity of different levels in Wuhan City. We used the per unit GDP comprehensive water consumption evaluation method and assimilative capacity model based on one dimensional water quality simulation and homogeneous mixing model for lake. We used carrying capacity to evaluate the water resources and water environment. Results show that, in 2012, 2020 and 2030, the water resources carrying capacity of Wuhan city circle is in reasonable bearing state, but its water environment carrying capacity is in a mildly overload state. So, water environment carrying capacity of Wuhan city is a more stringent restriction. With the development of social economy and the progress of wastewater treatment technology, water environment will be improved. But Water environment is still the key factor to restrict the economic and social development of Wuhan compared with the quantity of water resources.