海平面上升对长江三角洲地区的影响评价研究

气候变暖导致的全球性海平面加速上升严重威胁着沿海国家和地区的持续发展。作为世界五大三角洲之一的长江三角洲及其邻近地区，其地势低平，人口稠密，经济发达，因而所受海平观上升的威胁更加严重。根据ＩＰＣＣ拟定的方案，对于未来海平面另速上升所造成的沿海地区脆弱性影响评价，取海平面上升３０、６５和１００ｃｍ三种情况进行研究，本地区内岸段是我国海岸侵蚀最为严重的岸段。长江口的潮水上溯使盐水入侵、造成水质恶化，海

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA AND THE COUNTERMEASURES THEREOF

The sea level rise caused by global climate warming and its impacts constitute a serious menace to the sustained development of coastal countries and areas. Yangtze River Delta (one of the five largest deltas in the world) and its adjacent areas have low lying land, dense population and developed economy.According to the plan that was drawn up by IPCC,we have made the calculation and analysis of the possible effects of the future sea level rise by 30, 65 and 100 cm respectively. The results show that: with the available protection facilities against the tide, the length of erosion coast may increase to 425,450 and 480 km respectively, the duration of salt water intrusion may increase from 6 months per year to one year.The sea level rise also causes the acceleration of storm surge and flood disasters; if the future sea level is to rise 65 cm, the frequency of the occurence of high water in 100 year's return may increase by 10 times.The economic loss in the GNP value may amount to 110.1 billion yuan.