基于尖点突变的人群拥挤模型研究

近年来的统计分析表明,人群拥挤踩踏事故逐步上升为大型公共聚集场所的主要人为事故灾害类型之一。为了防止这类事故带来的危害,需要从理论高度开展对人群拥挤踩踏事故的承载体人群的运行系统的研究。国内外关于人群拥挤事故的研究方法很多,但至今还未找到较为完善、科学和经济的方法。因此提出将尖点突变理论引入到人群拥挤模型中,建立人群拥挤的尖点突变模型。实证分析表明,用突变模型得出的结论与数据拟合得出的结果大体一致,这说明突变理论应用于此领域是可行的。

Research on Models of Crowding Based on Cusp Catastrophe Theory

Many crowd-related disasters (that are,fatal accidents) over the past decade have demonstrated the possible lethal consequences of large gatherings of people.Theoretical study on crowding and trampling should be developed to avoid potential risk in gathering people.There are a number of solutions to crowding at home and abroad,but without any feasible and economical method so far.Based on cusp catastrophe theory,model of crowding is established.Empirical analysis indicates that conclusion and data based on ...