Sensitivity analysis of mass balance receptor modeling: Methyl chloride as an indicator of wood smoke

The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach to stability analysis of the Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor model is extended to incorporate uncertainties in both source and ambient compositions. SVD is applied to determine the improved precision with which the impact of residential wood smoke can be estimated by including methyl chloride in a CMB analysis. Wood smoke impacts in Hillsboro and Medford, Oregon, are examined. The results indicate that including methyl chloride will dramatically improve the precision of estimating wood smoke impacts for Medford, while estimates for Hillsboro are changed to a much lesser extent. This result is reasonable since the Medford airshed includes many industrial sources of particulate matter with chemical compositions similar to residential wood smoke, while Hillsboro is predominantly a residential community. The precision improvements estimated by SVD are verified by CMB analysis of a series of ambient samples collected in Hillsboro. Finally, the applicability of SVD as a receptor model study design tool is discussed.