耕地面积变化与经济发展水平的相关分析--以江苏十三个市为例

通过对江苏省13个市（1978－1996年）耕地面积变化和经济增长过程的分析，阐述了耕地面积变化量与国内生产总值变化量之间的相关性，并且根据耕地面积减少率与国内生产总值增长率的关系分析，将13个市划分为三种具体类型：（1）经济增长超前，耕地减少滞后；（2）经济增长滞后，耕地减少超前；（3）经济增长与耕地减少同步变化。由上述分析发现，耕在面积大量减少与经济过热增长阶段基本同步，江苏的经济增长模式仍属于资源消耗型。在13个市中，国内生产总值变化量与耕地面积变化量比值的差别较大，说明被挪作他用的那部分耕地的利用效益在各个市之间存在较大的差异。最后，提出了正确处理耕地减少与经济发展关系的对策建议：（1）提高耕地非农化的成本；（2）降低农业生产成本；（3）强化耕地的法律保护；（4）发展节地型经济增长技术；（4（5）加强土地复垦和土地整理。

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CHANGE OF CULTIVATED LAND AREA AND ECONOMIC GROWTH --A CASE STUDY ON THE THIRTEEN CITIES OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

Through analyzing the change of cultivated land area and economic growth of thirteen cities in Jiangsu province (1978-1996),this paper elaborated the relationship between cultivated land variable and the gross domestic products variable,and classified the thirteen cities of Jiangsu province into three types according to the relative analysis between decrease rate of cultivated land area and growth rate of gross domestic products:the first type being the kind that the economic growth was ahead of the cultivated land decrease,the second that the cultivated land decrease was ahead of the economic growth,the third the economic growth kept same step with the cultivated land decrease .From the above analysis we found that cultivated land area large-scale decrease was in step with the phase of extensively economic growth,and the type of economic growth in Jiangsu province was resource consuming.The ratio of gross domestic products variable to cultivated land variable varied in the thirteen cities of Jiangsu province,and the beneficial result of the cultivated land which was diverted had much difference in these cities. Finally, this paper put forward some recommendations in consideration of the relationship between the cultivated land decrease and economic growth: (1) We can raise the cost of transforming cultivated land into other use. (2) We can reduce the cost of agricultural production. (3) We can enhance the method which protects cultivated land. (4) We can develop the technology for economic growth,which inturn can save cultivated land. (5) We can strengthen land-resuming and land arrangement.