江西省耕地变化及保护策略

江西省人均耕地已触及联合国粮农组织规定的人均耕地警戒线，且近年来耕地流失的趋势还在加快。耕地减少主要集中在国家基建占地、退耕还林、退耕还塘以及灾害毁地等几个方面。近10年来，江西各地区表现出不同的耕地流失特征。人均GDP较高的地区，耕地减少率反而低。这主要是因为各地区处于不同的经济发展阶段，经济水平相对较高的传统工业城市正处于产业转型期，占用耕地较少，而相对落后的几个城市的工业正在起步，表现出占用耕地较多。利用主成分分析法，得出江西省耕地减少的四大驱动因素，分别是经济发展和人口增长、自然灾害、退耕政策以及农业技术进步。控制人口数量，实现耕地总量动态平衡，积极开垦、复垦土地，改善生态环境等是当前保护耕地的基本策 略。

CHANGING TENDENCY AND PROTECTION STRATEGY FOR CULTIVATED LAND IN JIANGXI PROVINCE

The cultivated land per capita in Jiangxi Province touches the cordon of cultivated land per capita enacted by FAO. The decrease of cultivated land has accelerated over the last a few years. The main components of decreased cultivated land, and were occupied by national building, returned to forests and lakes, and damaged by natural disasters, etc. Different regions in Jiangxi show various characters in change of cultivated land during the last decade. Decreasing rate is lower in regions with higher GDP per capita than with lower GDP per capita because Jiangxi is on the special stage of development. The regions with high GDPPC are on the period of industrial transformation, so they occupy less cultivated land than others. The regions with low GDPPC are on the starting period of industry, and they occupy more cultivated land than others.This paper analyzes the main factors of driving forces in cultivated land change by the Principal Component Analysis. The results show that economic development and population increase, and natural disasters and technological advance in agriculture are the four main factors. This paper proposes some basic strategies for the protection of cultivated land in Jiangxi, such as controlling population, implementing quantity balance of cultivated land, reclaiming land, improving ecological circumstance, etc.