| 城市重大危机事件演化的动力学模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 温宁,刘铁民.城市重大危机事件演化的动力学模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(1):10-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 温宁 刘铁民 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国安全生产科学研究院,北京,100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目; 城市重大危机事件动态演化及应急行为规律研究(编号:70833006) |
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| 摘 要： | 建立了城市重大危机事件的＂事件链＂,并分析了＂事件链＂中各状态的相互关系。基于SEIS传染病模型的思想,提出了一类城市重大危机事件的动力学模型。分别在不考虑外部因素对事件链的影响和考虑外部因素对事件链的影响的情况下,对事件从正常状态到危机状态沿时间的发展趋势和规律进行了分析,并对解进行Lyapunov稳定性分析以及计算机模拟仿真。研究表明：系统自身的修复能力和外部因素对系统的影响是控制危机事件的重要因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市重大危机事件 动力学方程 SEIS模型 Lyapunov稳定性分析 仿真 |
Research on dynamics modeling of urban major crisis evolution |
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| WEN Ning,LIU Tie-min.Research on dynamics modeling of urban major crisis evolution[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(1):10-13. |
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| Authors: | WEN Ning LIU Tie-min |
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| Institution: | WEN Ning,LIU Tie-min(China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China) |
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| Abstract: | The event chain of the urban major crisis was established,and the correlation of the various status was analyzed.Based on SEIS epidemic model,a dynamics model for urban crisis was proposed.By analyzing on 2 Situations,namely with and without the exterior factors affecting on the chain of events,the developing trends and disciplines of the events from normal to crisis were described.Finally,the solutions were analyzed using the Lyapunov stability theory and the simulations.The research showed that the self-r... |
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| Keywords: | urban crisis dynamics equations SEIS model lyapunov stability simulation |
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