基于可变模糊优选理论的应急指挥决策

在分析应急指挥决策方案的优选问题基础上,将可变模糊理论引入公共安全领域,提出应急指挥方案优选的可变模糊方法。该方法依据指标特征值矩阵,结合指标权重向量,计算各方案在不同模型下的相对优属度向量,并以此进行决策。其特点是模型可以变化以提高系统决策的可靠性。结合应急救援实例探讨可变模糊优选方法在应急决策中的应用,并与文献中的方法进行比较,表明可变模糊优选理论对于解决优选决策问题可行、有效,有助于指导应急决策实践。

Emergency Command Decision-making Based on Variable Fuzzy Optimization Theory

Based on the analysis of scheme optimization problem of emergency command decision-making,theory of variable fuzzy set is introduced into the field of public safety,and a scheme optimizationmethod for emergency command decision-making is presented based on variable fuzzy set theory. Thismethod calculates the relative optimal membership degree vector of schemes under different models according to the matrix of index characteristic value and the vector of index weight,and then makes decision.One characteristic of the model is that it can be variable so as to improve the reliability of decision-making.To verify the effectiveness of the method,an actual example was studied so as to explore its application inemergency decision-making. By comparing the results of the example with those gained by the methods ofsome literature,it indicates that the variable fuzzy optimization theory is feasible,effective and helpful indirecting decision-making of emergency.