基于多主体仿真的流行病研究:进展与评述

为借助于计算机工具有效地处理流行病研究中的复杂性问题,通过对现有的文献进行梳理,分析了基于多主体仿真进行流行病研究的国内外现状及所存在的不足之处,提出当前国内外大多数文献仍侧重于运用多主体仿真方法对流行病病毒传染途径和传播规律的探讨,而对运用多主体仿真方法进行疫情爆发后的应急管理活动的研究尚处于初步的探索阶段,相关的成果还不太多见。结果表明:鉴于多主体仿真在处理社会复杂问题上的优越性特点,基于多主体仿真研究流行病应急管理活动的组织与实施将不失为今后研究工作的一个重要方向。

An Overview on Epidemics Studies Based on Multi-agent Based Simulation

For effectively dealing with the complexity problems inherited in the epidemical studies with the aid of computer tools,literatures about epidemics researches based on multi-agent based simulation were summarized.The status of the researches at home and abroad and their defects were analyzed.It is concluded that most of the literatures pay attention to applying the multi-agent based methods in researches of the infection routines and transmission patterns of the viruses,while those about emergency management activities after the epidemics' breaking out are still in the preliminary stages with fewer fruitful outcomes.The results show that: as the advantages of multi-agent based simulation in treating social complex problems,researches of the organization and implementation of the epidemical emergency management activities are regarded as some of the important directions for the future works.