基于证据推理客运索道安全性评估

在比较分析现有各种评估方法的基础上,提出基于证据推理的安全性评估方法。在评估过程中,首先确定评价因素集及相应的权重和评价等级及评价等级效用值,然后利用解析算法进行证据的合成,并根据方案最终效用值到各评语等级效用值之间距离的大小确定评价等级。最后,将该方法运用于某客运索道安全评估,得出客运索道安全性评价为较好,并通过与模糊综合评价方法相比,进一步论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Safety Assessment of Passenger Ropeway Based on Evidential Reasoning

On the basis of comparing and analyzing the existing methods of safety assessment,a safety assessment method based on evidential reasoning(ER) is proposed which has unique advantages in dealing with uncertainty and ambiguity.During the safety assessment,the assessment factor sets and their corresponding weights,and the evaluation grades and their corresponding utility values are decided.Then the analytical synthesis algorithm is used for evidence combination,and the evaluation grade is determined according to the distance of the utility value gained to the pre-determined evaluation grades.Finally,ER is applied to the safety assessment of a certain passenger ropeway,and the evaluation grade is "better".Through comparing the proposed approach with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,it shows that the proposed safety method is more advantageous,effective and practical.