突发有毒气体泄漏事故应急模型开发

针对突发有毒气体泄漏事故,基于环境毒理学、GIS以及运筹学等基本方法和研究成果,探讨应急模型的建模方法和开发过程。使用高斯烟羽模型预测泄漏气体的扩散;基于毒气负载和AEGL标准评估事故危害,并开发以建筑物吸引率为核心的影响居民估算方法;基于最小伤害准则计算最佳应急疏散路线,并使用Logit模型进行疏散暴露评估;以最短救援时间为目标构建医疗资源的配置模型。将应急模型应用于模拟的气体泄漏场景,结果表明,模型开发方法有效,应急模型具有实用性,能够为应急决策提供重要的参考。

Development of an Emergency Model for Toxic Gas Release Accidents

On the foundations of some fundamental research methodologies and results published in fields of environmental toxicology,Geographical Information System and optimization theory,an emergency model for toxic gas release accidents is developed.First,the Gaussian Plume Model is used to predict the spread of released toxic gases,the gas toxic load and the Acute Exposure Guide Levels are employed together to assess the hazard of body exposure to excessive gases,and a method to estimate the population affected is developed with the indicator of building attraction rate as the core.Then,a minimized body injury principle is used to achieve the optimal evacuation routes,and Logit model is used to make the exposure assessments during evacuation.Lastly,the total shortest rescue time is adopted as the objective of the optimization model aiming at allocating medical resources reasonably.The emergency model was applied to a presumed toxic gas release accident.The results indicate the presented modeling approach is effective,and the developed emergency model can be generalized,which can provide important aiding information for emergency decision-makings.