基于BN的FTA在通用航空风险评价中的应用

针对事故树分析法(FTA)在风险评价中的局限性,采用以事故树为基础建立的贝叶斯网络(BN)风险模型,对通用航空中的两机空中相撞事故进行分析和推理,对事故模型进行改进和修正时,注重基事件的多态性和事件间的逻辑合理性。根据贝叶斯推理得出的数据,找到了事故的主要致因。结果表明,基于BN的FTA既能向前预测顶事件的发生概率,又能向后诊断基本事件的后验概率,可以更好地对通用航空风险进行评价。

Application of FTA Based on BN to Risk Assessment of General Aviation

Because of the limitation of fault tree analysis used in risk assessment,a fault tree of mid-air collision in general aviation was mapped onto Bayesian Network(BN).With the BN-FTA method,the mid-air collision model is discussed.During revising the BN model of accident,the multi-states of base events and logical reasonability between events must be considered.By analyzing the calculation data obtained from BN model,some key accident causation factors are found out.Result shows that BN-FTA method can not only predict the quantitative results but also diagnose the posterior probabilities,so it can make contribution to risk assessment in general aviation.