基于突变理论的近海船舶航行安全评价

基于船舶航行安全评价在海事预防与管理中的重要性,从"人-机-环境-管理"指标体系出发,结合近海航行船舶的特点及影响安全的因素,建立一个定量指标为主、定性指标为辅的4级安全评价体系;结合突变级数法和模糊综合评价对近海船舶航行安全进行评价和预测;最后以秦皇岛海域的5艘航行船舶为例进行实例演示。结果表明:用突变级数法对近海船舶航行进行安全评价得出的结论与实际情况基本吻合。应用突变级数法对近海船舶的安全状况进行实时监控、评价和预测,有助于海上运输的安全管理。

Navigation Safety Evaluation in Coastal Areas Based on Catastrophe Theory

In view of the importance of navigation safety assessment in marine prevention and management,and based on the index framework of "man-machine-environment-management",a four-level index system composed of most quantitative indexes and few qualitative indexes is established by combining with the characteristics and safety factors of ship navigation in coastal area.Then,catastrophe progression method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used to comprehensively evaluate and predict the safety of ship navigation in coastal areas.Finally,cases are demonstrated with 5 ships' navigation in Qinhuangdao coastal areas as examples,the result shows that it is basically in accord with the actual situation,and that using catastrophe progression method to monitor,evaluate and forecast the safety situation of ship navigation in coastal areas is useful to the safety management of marine transport.