基于模糊综合评价的城市燃气管网第三方破坏失效可能性研究

针对第三方破坏事故具有多样性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,建立城市燃气管网第三方破坏失效可能性评价模型。辨识出包括社会环境与公共关系、管道敷设状况、破坏与防控、管理与误操作以及自然环境等5类一级因素和19个二级因素,通过改进的层次分析法确定各级影响因素的权重,并运用多层次模糊综合评价法得出管道第三方破坏失效可能性的大小。以成都市某燃气管道为例进行验证分析,按照最大隶属度原则对评价结果进行处理。

Study on Failure Possibility of Third-party Damage to the Urban Gas Pipeline Network Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Aiming at the diversity,complexity and uncertainty of third-party damage incidents,a third-party damage failures assessment model is built up for urban gas pipeline network,which is made up of 19 second-hierarchy factors and 5 first-hierarchy factors including social environment and public relations,pipe laying conditions,destruction and prevention,management and incorrect operation,and natural factors.By applying the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process,the factors' weights are obtained.Then the pipeline failure possibility of third-party damage is obtained with the hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,a demonstration is made with the gas pipeline in Chengdu city as an example;the evaluation results are processed with the maximum membership grade.