Regional radiation risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling and GIS analysis

The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. Two approaches were tested: (1) probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation and (2) deterministic approach (case studies) for most possible or worst-case scenarios of modelled transport and deposition of radionuclides. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola nuclear power plant (NPP) because of (a) relatively high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and (b) rather high probability of an airflow trajectory there and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. The case scenarios demonstrate that population in many counties in each country, both near and far away from a nuclear site, might be subject to high risk depending on the meteorological situation.