Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.