埋地管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测概率模型

为考察腐蚀参数的不确定性对埋地管道失效和剩余寿命的影响,建立以Shell—92确定性模型为基础的管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测概率模型。采用Monte-Carlo方法计算管道剩余寿命及其累积分布函数,并进行参数敏感性分析,详细研讨影响埋地管道腐蚀剩余寿命的主要参数及其随服役时间的变化规律。计算结果表明,提出的管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测模型能有效预测实际中受多因素影响的管道失效和剩余寿命问题。

Probability Model for the Prediction of Corrosion Remaining Life of Underground Pipelines

Corrosion is recognized as one of the most important factors that influence the reliability and integrity of underground pipelines.A probabilistic model was presented for predicting the corrosion remaining life of pipelines based on Shell-92 mechanistic model.Monte Carlo simulation technique was employed to calculate the remaining life and its cumulative distribution function.Then,a sensitivity analysis was made to identify the key parameters influencing the failure of pipeline.The variation of pipeline remaining life with service time was also discussed.The results show that the present probabilistic model is efficient to predict the failure and remaining life of underground pipelines with multi-factors influencing.