东江流域水资源优化配置研究

该文建立了一个以东江流域水资源合理利用为目标,考虑防洪、供水、航运、压咸等约束,采用大系统“分解协调”原理,运用逐步宽容约束法及递阶分析法,通过三大水库与河道、区间径流联合调度,进行自流域至供水行业的多层次优化的水资源优化配置模型。在特枯水年来水情况下,对2020年水平年水资源进行优化调配,得出各个用水户两种不同初始条件下的配水结果。说明只有在三大水库初始蓄满的条件下,才能满足特枯年各个用水户2020水平年的需水要求。

Optimal allocation of water resources in Dongjiang River Basin

Based on the theory of″decompose-coordination″for large-scale systems,a system op-timal operation model with multi-objective programming is developed for optimal allocation of water resources in Dongjiang River Basin.The methods of hierarchical analysis and step by step toleration obligation are used in the process of coordination through sub-systems.Under two ini-tial storage conditions of the three large reservoirs(Xinfengjiang,Fengshuba and Baipenzhu),dead storage and normal storage,water resources of the drought year(p=97%)is distributed opti-mally in Dongjiang River Basin for water demand in the year2020.The results show serious damage of water supply(damage level4)with large amount of water shortage(2.35billion m 3 /a totally)in the drought year under the initial condition of dead storage of the three large reser-voirs.While with the initial normal storage of the three large reservoirs,water demand of the15water users in the year2020can be basically contented(only2.58million m 3 /a water shortage totally for agriculture)under dry year(97%).Normal storage of the three reservoirs as the initial condition is the key for the dry year water supply to the water demand year2020.However,wa -ter demand is increasing in keeping with the rapid socio-economic development,feasible mea-sures,e.g.,adjustment of the structure of industry,saving on water and enhancement of water management,should be taken to keep the sustainable use of water resources in Dongjiang River Basin in the future.