跨江桥梁项目环境风险概率计算及影响因素分析

跨江大桥项目由于存在对跨越水体水环境影响的特征,故而应该就风险概率的限制因素进行深入的分析.跨江桥梁对项目区域水环境风险产生的最大可信事故是危化品在跨越水体时发生事故进而产生侧翻、坠河、泄露等引起的对水环境的影响,本次研究在对项目区域交通事故基础数据统计的基础上,计算得到了具有代表性的事故概率基数,并在综合考虑了车型比、道路线形特征、事故区域及形态比例、防护措施等各项限制因素的情况下,计算出了大桥项目发生最大可信事故的概率.

The Study of the Environmental Risk Probability Calculation and Its Influence Factors on Cross-river Bridge Project

Considering the influence characteristics on water environment of the cross-river bridge, this article made a deep analysis and study on limited factors of risk probability. The maximum credible accident caused by cross-river bridge was the influence on regional water environment caused by side-turning over, crashing, dangerous chemicals leakage and other accidents when crossing the river. In this research, typical accidental probability cardinality was calculated from the original data statistics of traffic accidents in project area. The probability of bridge project maximum credible accident was calculated on the basis of accident probability cardinality, car type ratio, road alignment characteristics, accident area, morphology proportion, protective measures and other limiting factors.