涝灾风险及排涝设计标准风险分析优选方法

由于自然灾害的随机性,任何排涝工程都是存在风险的。将风险分析方法引入排涝损失计算,以治涝费用与超标准涝灾损失之和最小为目标函数,提出了地区排涝设计标准的优选方法。在该优化方法中,以排涝设计标准P作为决策变量,建立了治涝费用、涝灾风险及超标准涝灾风险损失与决策变量之间的函数关系,为地区排涝标准的优化奠定了基础。实例应用表明,该方法使优选结果更加符合地区特性,改变了人为选定标准的随意性。

Waterlogging Risk and Risk Analysis-based Optimization for Design Criteria for Waterlogging Control

Risks exist in any waterlogging control project due to the random features of natural disasters. The optimization for the regional design criteria for waterlogging control is put forward in this paper based on risk analysis of waterlog losses, and by minimizing the sum of the engineering cost and the super standard waterlog losses as the objective function. In this optimization model, the functional relationship is established between waterlog risks, engineering cost, super standard waterlog losses and decision variable by taking the drainage design criterion P as the decision variable, on the basis of which the design criterion for waterlogging control is optimized. The practical application of the optimization method indicate that the optimized results may be in closer agreement with the regional features and eliminates the arbitray selection of design criterion.