基于燃料生命周期的中国铁路排放趋势

铁路运输是现代运输的主要方式之一,在空气质量改善和"双碳"目标的双重约束下,厘清铁路运输CO₂和污染物排放趋势,对于交通领域的减污降碳工作具有重要意义.基于燃料生命周期法分析了中国火车2001~2018年的CO₂和污染物排放特征,在此基础上,结合情景分析评估了2019~2030年的铁路排放趋势.结果表明,随着铁路电气化进程的推进、内燃机车新车投入使用和燃油标准的不断升级,铁路运输燃料生命周期的CO₂和污染物排放整体分别呈上升和下降趋势,而其上游阶段的排放占比逐年升高.2018年铁路运输的CO₂、NO_x、CO、BC和SO_x排放总量分别为3780.29万t、11.98万t、3.94万t、0.20万t和3.08万t.情景分析表明,加快电力结构改善和降低单位运输能耗分别是降低铁路CO₂、SO_x和NO_x、BC、CO排放的最佳单一控制手段.积极应对铁路减污降碳工作的综合情景下,CO₂、NO_x、CO、BC和SO_x的减排率可分别达35%、37%、39%、32%和45%.电力结构改革和铁路电气化进程的停滞均会造成铁路运输排放总量的显著增加,铁路减污降碳工作仍需高度重视.

Railway Emission Trends in China Based on Fuel Life Cycle Analysis

Railway transportation is one of the main modes of modern transportation. Under the dual constraints of air quality improvement and carbon neutrality achievement, clarifying the emission trend of CO₂ and pollutants in railway transportation is of great significance for pollution and carbon reduction in the transport sector. In this study, the CO₂ and pollutant emission characteristics of Chinese railways from 2001 to 2018 were analyzed based on the fuel life cycle method. Then, railway emission trends from 2019-2030 were assessed combined with scenario analysis. The results showed that with the advancement of railway electrification, the use of new diesel locomotives, and the continuous upgrading of fuel standards, the total CO₂ and pollutant emissions in the fuel life cycle of railway transportation showed an upward and downward trend, respectively. In 2018, the total emissions of CO₂, NO_x, CO, BC, and SO_x from railway transportation were 3780.29×10⁴t, 11.98×10⁴t, 3.94×10⁴t, 0.20×10⁴t, and 3.08×10⁴t, respectively. Accelerating the improvement of power structure and reducing unit energy consumption were the best single control strategies to reduce railway emissions of CO₂, SO_x, NO_x, BC, and CO, respectively. Under the comprehensive scenario of actively responding to railway pollution and carbon reduction, the emission reduction rates of CO₂, NO_x, CO, BC, and SO_x could reach 35%, 37%, 39%, 32%, and 45%, respectively. The stagnation of power structure reform or the railway electrification process will lead to a significant increase in total emissions of railway transportation. Therefore, the pollution and carbon reduction of railway transportation requires continuous attention.