2000～2020年西南地区植被NDVI时空变化及驱动机制探究

基于2000～2020年MOD13A3 NDVI时间序列、1999～2020年气象数据以及2000年和2020年两期土地利用类型数据，采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、 Mann-Kendall显著性检验、多重共线性检验、残差分析和相对作用分析等方法，分析了西南地区植被NDVI时空变化特征及气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的驱动机制.结果表明，研究时段内西南地区整体及各地貌单元植被NDVI均呈上升趋势，其中，广西丘陵和云贵高原植被NDVI上升趋势最为显著，青藏高原植被NDVI上升趋势最为微弱.气候变化和人类活动影响下西南地区植被NDVI上升斜率分别为0.001 0 a^-1和0.000 6 a^-1.气候变化和人类活动的共同驱动是引起西南地区植被改善的主要原因.西南地区植被改善主要受区域气候条件的控制，植被退化主要受人类活动的影响.总体上，植被NDVI与最低气温、降水、最高气温、可能蒸散率和相对湿度呈正相关，与平均气温、气压、日照时数、温暖指数和湿度指数呈负相关.最低气温、日照时数和降水是影响西南地区植被NDVI变化的主要气象因子...

Spatio-temporal Variation in Vegetation Cover and Its Driving Mechanism Exploration in Southwest China from 2000 to 2020

Using the MOD13A3 NDVI time series from 2000 to 2020, climate date from 1999 to 2020, and land use type data in 2000 and 2020, the spatio-temporal variation in vegetation cover and the driving mechanisms of climate change and human activities to vegetation variation were analyzed based on Theil-Sen Median analysis, the Mann-Kendall significance test, the multi-collinearity test, residual analysis, and relative analysis. The results showed that the vegetation cover exhibited a fluctuating and increasing trend with a magnitude of 0.0016 a^-1 in southwest China from 2000 to 2020. The increasing trend of vegetation cover was mostly significant in the Guangxi Hills and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and slightly significant in the Tibet Plateau. The vegetation cover had increased in the context of climate change and human activities, with an increasing rate of 0.0010 a^-1 and 0.0006 a^-1, respectively. The vegetation improvement was mostly dominated by the combination effects of climate change and human activities. The vegetation improvement was dominated by climate change, and the relative role of climate change reached 61.86%. What is more, the vegetation degradation was dominated by human activities, and the relative role of human activities reached 58.39%. Vegetation cover was positively related to minimum temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, potential evapotranspiration rate, and relative humidity and negatively related to mean temperature, atmosphere pressure, sunshine duration, warmth index, and humidity index. As a whole, the minimum temperature, sunshine duration, and precipitation were the dominant climate factors affecting the vegetation variation in southwest China. Furthermore, the land use and land cover change were significantly related to vegetation variation in southwest China. The implementation of ecological afforestation projects could be beneficial to regional vegetation improvement, whereas the vegetation degradation was mostly conducted by the built-up land expansion.