云南省粮食产量影响因素的实证研究

采用实证分析的方法，以云南省为例，选取影响云南省粮食产量的8个因素（耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食单产、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、受灾面积、农业机械总动力、农村用电量），并根据这8个因素对2000-2004年的原始统计数据进行了灰色关联度分析和因子分析。经研究表明，影响云南省粮食产量的因素可以归纳为农业土地利用状况和农业现代化水平，具体体现在耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食单产、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力这6个方面。根据研究结论和目前云南省粮食产量的现状，提出了解决云南省粮食安全的对策与建议。

Analysis Influence Factor of Grain Yield in Yunnan Province

This paper focused on eight factors(surface area of cultivated land,surface area of grain sow,per unit area yield of grain,the amount of chemical fertilizer,surface area of effective irrigate,the total sum of farm machinery,the surface area of disaster,the amount of electricity in countryside)which influenced grain yield in Yunnan Province and basing the statistics data of those eight factors from 2000 to 2004,carried on gray incidence analysis and factor analysis.The research indicated the factors that influence grain yield in Yunnan Province could be induced the state of agriculture land use and the standard of agriculture modernization.Concretely reflected on six aspects:surface area of cultivated land,surface area of grain sow,per unit area yield of grain,the amount of chemical fertilizer,surface area of effective irrigate,the total power of farm machinery.On the basis of the research conclusion and the present condition of grain in Yunnan Province,the authors put forward some tactics and suggestions that could be used to solve grain secure in Yunnan Province.