上海城市风暴潮灾害及其预测

风暴潮是上海地区最主要的自然灾害之一。其特点一是大的风暴潮灾害都是由于台风影响造成的；二是重灾区主要发生在沿杭州湾、长江口地区和市区；三是随首防潮设施防御能力提高而减轻，随地面下沉面加重；四是随着长江口、黄浦江潮位的不断抬高，黄浦江中上游地区潮灾加重。因而，预测可能最高潮位，因害设防，对于防灾减灾具有实践意义。

Storm-Tide Disaster and Its Forecast in Shanghai City

the storm tide is one of the main nature disasters in Shanghai It hase following characteristics First, all storm tides are caused by from typhoon Second, the serious disasters mainly occur in Hangzhou Bay, the mouth of Yangze River and city area Third, with improving preventive capacity, the disaster damage becomes decreasing, but ground subsidence becomes worse Fourth, tidal disasters along mid and upper Hungpu river become heavy with rising of tidal level So, forecast of the highest tidal level is of practical importance to hazard prevention and reduction