Ecosystem Manipulation Experimentation as a Means of Testing a Biogeochemical Model |
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Authors: | TIMOTHY J SULLIVAN |
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Institution: | (1) E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. P.O. Box 609 Corvallis, Oregon 97339, USA , US |
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Abstract: | 2 concentration, and global or regional temperature change. Such model projections are frequently used as the basis or justification
for public policy decisions and legislation. A substantial need has therefore arisen to test and substantiate the veracity
of mathematical model projections. Unfortunately, environmental models can never be truly validated because natural systems
are never closed and model solutions are always nonunique. Partial model confirmation is possible, however, and entails demonstration
of agreement between prediction and observation. Experimental ecosystem manipulation provides one of the best, and in many
cases only, available basis for model confirmation. The use and potential misuse of data from experimental ecosystem manipulations
for model testing is explored using examples drawn from the application of an acid–base chemistry model, MAGIC. As model projections
provide an increasingly important basis for public policy decisions, and as both the scientific questions and the models become
increasingly complex, it will become critical to provide data from a suite of well-designed ecosystem manipulation experiments
in order to evaluate the quality and uncertainty of those model projections and the models upon which they are based. |
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Keywords: | : Modeling Model testing Acidification Ecosystem manipulation |
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