西安市PM2.5健康损害价值评估

选取2014、2015、2016年冬季PM_(2.5)(24 h)浓度平均值,采用泊松回归模型评价全市居民连续3 a冬季PM_(2.5)暴露的急性健康损害效应,修正的人力资本法评估过早死亡经济损失,疾病成本法评估住院、患病与门诊经济损失.结果表明,研究时段内(2014、2015、2016年冬季)由PM_(2.5)造成的经济损失约为335.23亿元(95%CI:249.61~369.75)、211.05亿元(95%CI:135.60~268.80)、371.32亿元(95%CI:272.46~411.64),分别约占当年GDP的6.10%(4.54%~6.73%)、3.64%(2.34%~4.63%)、5.91%(4.34%~6.55%);健康经济损失与当年冬季PM_(2.5)浓度均值呈正相关关系;PM_(2.5)污染物对西安市常住人口健康影响显著,影响的病例(2014、2015、2016年)分别约为1 071 338例(95%CI:646 432~1 385 847)、438 273例(95%CI:246 842~599 989)、1 019 503例(95%CI:611 407~1 324 547);对哮喘儿童患者的影响比成人显著,而慢性支气管炎的影响成人比儿童显著.该研究可为西安市实施PM_(2.5)空气质量标准的成本效益分析提供科学的依据,为环境质量的管理提供参考.

Evaluation the Extent of Health Damage Caused by PM2.5 Particulate in Xi'an City

The study evaluated the acute health damage effect of PM_2.5 exposure in winter in Xi''an City, using the average concentration of PM_2.5 (24 h) and the Average Poisson Regression Model for three consecutive years, from 2014 to 2016. The Corrected Human Capital Method was used to evaluate the economic loss from premature death. The cost of illness was used to assess the economic loss of hospitalization, illness and clinic. The results show that the economic loss in the study period (2014, 2015, 2016) caused by PM_2.5 was about 33.523 billion yuan (95% CI: 24.961-36.975), 21.105 billion yuan (95% CI: 13.560-26.880), and 37.132 billion yuan (95% CI: 27.246-41.164). The proportions of GDP were as follows: 6.10% (4.54%-6.73%), 3.64% (2.34%-4.63%), and 5.91% (4.34%-6.55%) for each of the three years. The health economic loss was positively correlated with the average PM_2.5 concentration in winter. PM_2.5 pollutants have a significant impact on the health of residents in Xi''an. The number of reported cases was about 1071338 (95% CI: 646432-1385847), 438273 (95% CI: 246842-599989), and 1019503 (95% CI: 611407-1324547) for each of the three years. The effects on children with asthma were significantly higher than that on adults, while adults with chronic bronchitis were affected more significantly than children. This study can provide a scientific basis for cost-benefit analysis of the PM_2.5 air quality standard in Xi''an, and provide a reference for the management of environment quality.