“十三五”挥发性有机物总量控制情景分析

总量控制制度是一种行之有效的污染控制手段,我国从2016年开始对挥发性有机物(volatile organic compounds,VOCs)进行总量控制.采用"排放因子法"和"回归分析法",估算和预测我国2015年和2020年人为源VOCs排放量,结果表明,2015年我国人为源VOCs排放量约为3 111.70万t;2020年基准情景VOCs排放量预计为4 173.72万t,相比于2015年增长了34.13%.根据"十三五规划纲要"中的减排要求,全国2020年VOCs总量控制目标为2015年排放量的90%,即2 800.53万t,"十三五"期间,全国至少需减少排放1 373.19万t的VOCs.在此基础上,以2015年为基准年、2020年为目标年,通过情景分析法,设置我国"十三五"期间可能推行的3种总量控制情景:重点区域全面推进VOCs减排、重点行业全面推进VOCs减排、重点区域重点行业推进VOCs减排,并对每种情景下的控制总量进行分配.结果表明,3种情景的减排潜力与削减任务均存在一定的缺口,实现"十三五"总量减排目标难度大,需要加大VOCs污染控制力度.

Scenario Analyses of the Volatile Organic Compound Emission Allowance and Allocation in the 13th Five-Year Period

China implemented the emission allowance and allocation strategy in 2016 to achieve effective control of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). An inventory of VOCs emissions for 2015 and future emissions for 2020 were developed and predicted, respectively, using emission factors and regression analysis. The results showed that anthropogenic VOCs emission in 2015 was 31117.0 kt. VOCs emission in 2020 under the business-as-usual scenario is predicted to be 41737.2 kt, an increase of 34.13% from that in 2015. Based on the Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan, a total amount control target and pollution reduction task of about 28005.3 kt and 13731.9 kt, respectively, were proposed. Additionally, three control scenarios, i.e., implementing VOCs emission reduction strategies in all the key areas, in all the key industries, and in the key industries of the key areas, were established for the 13th Five-Year Plan using a scenario analysis method. The results showed that some differences exist between the potential mitigation of VOCs emissions and the emission reduction target for the three control scenarios, it is difficult to realize the emission allowance target. It is necessary to devote greater efforts to control VOCs. Moreover, reducing emissions of VOCs by implementing large-scale control projects is recommended. Further, regulation of VOC emissions in key areas and industries should be emphasized.