我国城市PM2.5污染的健康风险及经济损失评价

开展大样本城市的空气污染造成人群健康风险及经济损失研究,对于推进空气污染的防控与区域合作治理、公众健康素养提升具有重要意义.本文以我国62个环保重点监测城市为样本,运用环境健康风险与环境价值评估方法,对2015年PM_(2.5)污染引发的健康风险及经济损失进行评价,结果表明PM_(2.5)污染造成约12.51万人早逝[95%CI(置信区间):3.33~20.59万人]及1 009.59万人次患病、门诊和住院(95%CI:470.38~1 501.93万人次),占这些城市市区总人口的3.53%(95%CI:1.64%~5.26%).造成经济损失5 705.57亿元(95%CI:1 930.82~8 742.14亿元),占这些城市GDP总和的1.53%(95%CI:0.52%~2.35%),人均经济损失1 970元(95%CI:667~3 018元).四大城市群中,京津冀在健康风险、健康经济损失及其占GDP比重、人均损失方面均高于长三角、珠三角及东北.三大经济区中,东部的健康风险及经济损失高于中部与西部,三地的人均经济损失差别不大.南北方的经济损失相差很小,但北方的经济损失占GDP比重与人均损失均远高于南方.保定、郑州、济南、北京等市PM_(2.5)浓度很高,健康风险与经济损失问题突出.

An Assessment of PM2.5-Related Health Risks and Associated Economic Losses in Chinese Cities

It is important to carry out research on health risks and associated economic losses caused by air pollution using a large sample city in order to control air pollution and improve public health literacy. Using environmental health risk and environmental value assessment methods, the health risks of PM_2.5 pollution in 2015, as well as the corresponding economic losses, were estimated in this study using the environmental monitoring data of 62 key cities as samples. The results show that significant impacts due to PM_2.5 pollution occurred in 2015, including about 125.1[95% confidence interval (CI):33.29-205.90] thousand premature deaths and 10.10 (95% CI:4.70-15.02) million cases of illness, hospital admissions, and outpatients, which accounted for 3.53% (95% CI:1.64%-5.26%) of the total urban population. The total economic loss associated with the health risks was approximately 570.6 (95% CI:193.08-874.21) billion yuan, which accounts for 1.53% (95% CI:0.52%-2.35%) of the total GDP in 2015. The per capita loss was 1970 (95% CI:667-3018) yuan for these cities. Among the four major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Northeast China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has the highest health risks, associated economic losses, the proportion of associated economic losses to GDP, and associated economic loss per capita because of its high concentration of PM_2.5 and dense population than other three urban agglomerations. Among the three economic areas of Eastern, Central, and Western China, the health risks and associated economic losses were highest in the former. However, economic loss per capita did not differ greatly in the three economic areas. The difference in economic losses was very small between South and North China. However, the proportion of economic loss to GDP and per capita loss were much higher in the North than in the South. As to specific cities, the problems of health risks and economic losses were outstanding in Baoding, Zhengzhou, Jinan, and Beijing, which have higher PM_2.5 concentrations.