病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估 ——以水库的游憩价值为例

以滁州市黑洼水库的游憩价值为例,利用两边界二分式条件价值法,探讨了我国病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估.利用收入限制的Logit模型,分析支付意愿均值和中值点估计和区间估计对其分布函数右尾变化的灵敏性.结果表明本研究中支付意愿的分布函数没有出现“大尾效应”,在最大投标值处,对分布函数进行简单截断的方法统计效率最高.滁州市公众对黑洼水库游憩功能提升的平均支付意愿为305元/户(95%置信区间265~351元/户);总价值为3782万元(95%置信区间3296~4355万元).表明即使是小型病险水库也可能具有极高的环境价值,病险水库管理决策必须考虑环境价值这一重要指标.

Environmental valuation in aging dam decision making: a case study of reservoir recreation

In order to investigate environmental valuation in aging dam decision making,a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method was used to estimate recreational value of the Heiwa Dam.Using different Logit models taking account of income restriction on willingness-to-pay(WTP),sensitivity of WTP estimates to the right tail of its distribution was examined.The WTP distribution in this study did not have an unrealistically fat right tail.The simple method which truncates WTP distribution at the h...