Non-homogeneous Poisson models with a change-point: an application to ozone peaks in Mexico city |
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Authors: | Jorge Alberto Achcar Eliane R. Rodrigues Carlos Daniel Paulino Paulo Soares |
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Affiliation: | 1.Departamento de Medicina Social,FMRP—USP,Ribeir?o Preto,Brazil;2.Instituto de Matemáticas—UNAM,Mexico,Mexico;3.Departamento de Matemática,Universidade Técnica de Lisboa—IST,Lisboa,Portugal |
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Abstract: | In this paper, we use some non-homogeneous Poisson models in order to study the behavior of ozone measurements in Mexico City. We assume that the number of ozone peaks follows a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We consider four types of rate function for the Poisson process: power law, Musa–Okumoto, Goel–Okumoto, and a generalized Goel–Okumoto rate function. We also assume that a change-point may or may not be present. The analysis of the problem is performed by using a Bayesian approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The best model is chosen using the DIC criterion as well as graphical approach. |
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