The dynamic context of southern African savannas: investigating emerging threats and opportunities to sustainability

The Southern African Savannas Network and the Southern African Vulnerability Initiative used study areas and information from a wide range of sources to assess threats and opportunities to savanna sustainability from a natural and social science perspective, respectively. This paper describes an attempt to synthesise their findings using structural analysis. Key driving processes, main dependent processes, and processes that are inherent to most interactions by having both high driving power and high dependency, were identified. Qualitative examination reveals that while many of the changes within savannas reinforce each other, many of the key driving factors are generated externally, such as economic globalisation and climate change. In order to take advantage of opportunities and address challenges within such a complex and dynamic system, future interventions must address the different elements of savannas in a coherent and multi-sectoral manner. Within the large social, economic and environmental changes taking place over the past decade, changes in institutions and technologies and in indigenous fauna and flora continue to play a central role both in driving, and being dependent on, other processes and must continue to be a key focus of any coherent savanna policy.