极端气候事件的灾后适应能力研究——以水稻为例

本研究以水稻种植业为例,基于1985-2008年中国水稻主产区的面板数据,实证分析了中国极端气候事件灾后适应能力的机制及绩效。结论表明:西南、华中、华东地区在极端气候事件灾后,并没有将农业产业结构向养殖业调整,相反,种植业在政府扶持与创新激励下反而恢复生产甚至进一步扩张。特别对于西南等经济相对欠发达地区而言,较强的灾后适应能力,往往是农业生产机会成本较低的作用结果,同样由于此原因,华东地区在水灾之后却出现了劳动力转移现象。现阶段,灾后适应能力较多的表现为微观层面的农户响应行为,此种民间调控机制必然有其局限性,政府部门应加大投入力度,通过水利工程建设、气象灾害预警体系构建、标准化农田建设、良种补贴等方式引领粮食主产区应对气象灾害。

Post-disaster Adaptability to Extreme Weather Events

Based on the provincial panel data of main grain producing areas from 1985 to 2008,this paper empirically analyzes the mechanism and performance of post-disaster adaptability to extreme weather events.The conclusion shows that Southwest,Central and South China do not adjust the agricultural structure to breeding industry after disasters;on the contrary,plant farming is revived by government supports and innovate incentives,particularly for the Southwest where less developed,stronger post-disaster adaptability is the result of lower opportunity cost of agricultural production.For the same reason,labor-transfer phenomenon occurred after floods in East China.At present,the post-disaster adaptability to extreme weather events is merely from farmers’ response;therefore,the government should input more and more to promote the adaptability against meteorological disasters.