437个火电厂项目环境影响宏观分析及对策研究

对2004-2005年上报国家环境保护总局环境工程评估中心的437个火电项目环境影响和宏观对策分4种方案进行了分析和探讨.结果表明:方案Ⅰ和方案Ⅱ的能源弹性系数分别为3.6和2.2,对环境、资源影响较大,不利于可持续发展;方案Ⅲ能源弹性系数为0.5,对环境、资源影响小,符合可持续发展,但目前难以实现;方案Ⅳ能源弹性系数为0.8,对环境、资源影响较小,按方案Ⅳ模式发展也有一定难度,但经过艰苦努力可以实现.分析了火电发展对煤炭资源和环境等方面的影响,并提出应尽快将我国能源弹性系数恢复到正常值,统筹火电厂规划,坚持经济发展模式的转变、节能降耗、调整产业结构等建议. 

Macroscopical Analysis and Countermeasure Research of the Environment Impact of the 437 Thermal Power Projects

The authors analyzed and discussed the environmental impact and the macroscopical countermeasure of 437 proposed thermal power projects submitted to SEPA Appraisal Center for Environment & Engineering from 2004 to 2005 with 4 schemes,and educed 4 pictures.The elasticity ratio of energy indicated in picture Ⅰ and picture Ⅱ is 3.6 and 2.2 respectively which will impact largely to the environment and energy and thus do harm to the sustainable development;the elasticity ratio of energy indicated in picture Ⅲ is 0.5 which will impact little to the environment and energy and thus be propitious to the sustainable development,but picture Ⅲ is difficult to carry out;the elasticity ratio of energy indicated in picture Ⅳ is 0.8 which will impact a little to the environment and energy,and picture Ⅲ is also difficult to carry out,but it can be carried out with laborious effort.The environmental impact and resource pressures brought with the electricity production is forecasted and discussed.Some suggestions were put forward,including making the elasticity ratio of energy in China decline to the normal value as soon as possible,planning thermal power plants as a whole,insisting on changing current economic development pattern,and performing energy saving,material reducing and industrial restructuring,etc.