环境规制对长三角城市绿色发展的影响——基于技术创新的作用路径分析

环境规制与绿色发展的关系及其作用机制是复杂且有争议的议题。基于长三角41个地级及以上城市2003—2018年的面板数据,首先科学构建绿色发展水平测度的指标体系,计算各城市的绿色发展水平及空间动态演变;其次,借鉴可拓展随机性的环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）,构建面板计量模型,深入探究环境规制对城市绿色发展的影响。研究发现：（1）长三角地区环境规制和绿色发展水平均呈上升趋势,但区域差异显著,绿色发展水平从东南向西北,呈现圈层式递减态势,而环境规制强度重心经历了由东南向西北转移的演变。（2）总体上,环境规制显著影响城市绿色发展,两者间存在倒“U”型关系,即过强的环境规制会抑制城市绿色发展水平的提升。（3）环境规制与技术创新之间存在紧密的联动关系,即环境规制主要通过技术创新这一中介路径促进城市绿色发展转型,其中介效应占总效应的比例约为50.1%。因此,在推动长三角一体化高质量发展过程中,应该根据城市绿色发展效率来制定本地的环境规制,并重视提升本地的技术创新水平,进而实现城市绿色发展转型的目标。

Research on the impact of environmental regulation on urban green development in the Yangtze River Delta: An analysis of intermediary mechanism based on technological innovation

The relationship between environmental regulation and green development and its impact mechanism are complex and controversial. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2018, this paper first constructs a measurement index system to calculate the green development level and spatial dynamic evolution of each city. Secondly, using the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT), this paper constructs a panel measurement model to explore the impact of environmental regulation on urban green development. The results show that: (1) The level of environmental regulation and green development in the study area shows an upward trend, but there are significant regional differences. The level of green development has been in a stable pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, and the focus of environmental regulation intensity has experienced a spatial evolution from southeast to northwest. (2) On the whole, environmental regulation can affect urban green development significantly, and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between them, that is, excessive environmental regulation will inhibit the level of urban green development. (3) There is a close linkage between environmental regulation and technological innovation. Environmental regulation mainly affects urban green development through the intermediary path of technological innovation, in which the intermediary effect accounts for about 50.1% of the total effect. The research results can provide some enlightenment for promoting the integrated and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta. Local condition-based environmental regulation is the premise to improve the efficiency of urban green development, and pay attention to the promotion of the transformation of urban green development by improving the level of technological innovation.