科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放效率——基于省际面板数据的PVAR分析

基于PVAR模型,以我国30个省（市、自治区）2010—2018年数据为例,从全国和东中西区域层面分析科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放效率的动态关系。结果表明：（1）从全国层面看,科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放效率自身具有较强的协调性且相互间能够产生正向的促进作用。（2）从区域内部来看,自东向西,科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放效率的协调程度逐步递减。东部地区基本实现了三个变量的协调发展,中部地区产业结构升级与碳排放效率尚未形成双向互动关系,碳排放效率对产业结构升级提升的推动力不足;西部地区科技创新水平偏低,产业结构不合理、碳排放效率较低,三者均未形成良性互动。

Technological innovation,industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency: An analysis based on PVAR model of panel data at provincial level

Based on the 2010-2018 Chinese provincial panel data, a PVAR model is constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship between technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency at the national and regional levels. The results show that: (1) From the national level, technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency have strong self-coordination and mutual positive promotion; (2) From the regional level, from east to west, technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency of coordination degree decrease, the eastern region have basically achieved the coordinated development of the three variables, industrial structure upgrade and carbon emissions efficiency in the central region have not yet formed a two-way interaction, carbon emissions efficiency has insufficient impetus to improve industrial structure upgrade. In the western region, the level of technological innovation is low, the industrial structure is unreasonable, and the carbon emissions efficiency is low as well. There is no positive interaction among the three factors in Western China.