高质量发展背景下的城湖共生关系识别与评价——以长三角合肥—巢湖为例

随着经济社会快速发展,城湖关系出现复杂而多元的变化,给区域可持续发展带来潜在挑战。从优化城市发展与湖泊保护的关系视角出发,在开展城湖共生理论分析的基础上,以长三角地区的合肥—巢湖为研究对象,构建城湖共生评价指标体系,引入Lotka-Volterra模型识别合肥—巢湖的城湖共生模式,采用共生协调度模型测度合肥—巢湖的城湖共生水平。主要结论如下：（1）研究期内城市子系统呈稳定上升趋势,各项指标由差异较大逐渐向均衡发展转变,但科技创新水平有待提升,下一步要加强转型升级和绿色创新。（2）研究期内湖泊子系统呈波动上升趋势,且2014年后趋势放缓;水生态环境相比水污染防治和水资源安全提升明显,但三者近年来增速都放缓,近期要强化巢湖系统保护与综合治理。（3）合肥与巢湖已进入城湖互利共生早期阶段,但共生协调度水平较低,需加强城湖联动、城湖互融,实现合肥与巢湖的高水平共生。合肥—巢湖的城湖关系研究为长三角地区其他城湖系统的共生关系识别以及高质量发展提供了参考和借鉴。

Recognition and evaluation of city-lake symbiosis under the background of high-quality development: A case study of Hefei and Chaohu Lake in Yangtze River Delta

With rapid socio-economic development, the relationship between city and lake has experienced complicated and diversified changes, which brings potential challenges to regional sustainable development. To optimize the relationship between urban development and lake protection, this study, taking Hefei-Chaohu Lake in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as an example, established the evaluation index system of city-lake symbiosis, and analyzed the development levels and variations of Hefei and Chaohu Lake from 2005 to 2019, based on the theoretical analysis of city-lake symbiosis. Consequently, the symbiotic pattern of Hefei and Chaohu Lake was identified by introducing Lotka-Volterra model, and the variation trend of Hefei and Chaohu Lake symbiotic level was measured using symbiotic coordination degree model. The main conclusions and suggestions are as follows: (1) During the study period, the city subsystem showed a steady upward trend, and the level of each indicator gradually changed from great differences to balanced development. Although the level of scientific and technological innovation showed the fastest increasing trend, it was still lower than the other indicators. In order to further improve the level of scientific and technological innovation, it is suggested to enhance both the industrial transformation-upgrading and green innovation capability of Hefei. (2) During the study period, the lake subsystem showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the trend slowed down since 2014. The water ecological environment has been improved significantly compared with the levels of water pollution prevention and water resource security. However, the growth rates of all the three indicators have slowed down in recent years. Thus, comprehensive management and protection of Chaohu Lake is still one of the top priorities in the near future. (3) Although the results of the identification of symbiotic pattern show that Hefei and Chaohu Lake have already stepped into the stage of mutualistic symbiosis, the low value of symbiotic coordination degree indicates that both the city and the lake are still in the early stage. In addition to the improvement of the levels of both the city subsystem and the lake subsystem, it is suggested that the linkage and integration between Hefei and Chaohu Lake should be further enhanced to reach the high level of mutualistic symbiosis, and realize the harmonious development between human and nature. The study provides a reference for symbiotic pattern recognition and high-quality development of other city-lake systems in the YRD.