长江经济带乡村性的时空分异格局及驱动机制

乡村性是描述乡村地域特征的重要指标,其时空分异可以有效反映乡村发展及转型的基本面。聚焦我国重大国家战略发展区域“长江经济带”,采用乡村性指数测度模型及探索性空间数据分析探究2000年、2005年、2010年及2017年长江经济带县域乡村性的时空分异格局,并运用GWR模型重点分析影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明：（1）2000—2017年,长江经济带县域乡村性总体有所减弱,空间上呈现“东部低、中西部高”的特点;县域乡村性在城市群（圈）、省会及大城市附近呈现较低水平,向外围逐渐升高。（2）乡村性高高集聚主要分布在中西部的传统农区,随时间推移明显缩减;低低集聚则集中在长三角、武汉、长株潭等城市群（圈）地区,且整体格局较为稳定。（3）农业技术、政府支持、资本投入、市场调节因素能促进乡村发展及转型,其中,农业技术的作用最强。自然环境和区位条件则兼具促进和限制作用。这些影响因素对不同地区乡村发展及转型的影响存在差异性,未来制定区域乡村发展策略应针对不同地区分类精准施策。

Spatio-temporal differentiation and driving mechanism of rurality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Rurality is an important indicator to describe characteristics of rural areas. Its spatial and temporal distribution can effectively reflect the basic characteristics of rural development and transformation. Based on the measurement of rurality indexes in the years of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2017, this study mainly uses Exploratory Spatial data Analysis method (ESDA) to explore the spatio-temporal differentiation of the rurality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors by GWR model. The results show that: (1) Rurality indexes of counties in the study area tend to decline from 2000 to 2017, and the distribution characteristic of rurality indexes presents a pattern of "high in the central and western parts while low in the eastern part"; the counties with low level of rurality are mainly distributed near the urban agglomerations, provincial capitals and big cities, while the counties with high level of rurality are in the peripheral areas. (2) The rurality's high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the traditional agricultural regions in the central and western parts, and they tend to shrink gradually over time. The rurality's low-low agglomeration areas are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Wuhan Megalopolis Area and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group, and the spatial distribution is relatively stable over time. (3) Agricultural technology, government support, capital input and market regulation can promote rural development and transformation, among which agricultural technology plays the most important role. Both natural environment and location have the promoting and limiting effects. Due to different effects of influencing factors on different regions, rural development strategies should be formulated specifically for specific regions in the future.