人才流动的空间特征、驱动因素及其对长三角一体化高质量发展的启示——基于高校毕业生的分析

2018年长三角一体化发展上升为国家战略,旨在以一体化的思路和举措打破行政壁垒,实现资金、人才、技术等要素资源的畅通流动。人才作为知识经济时代创新和发展的主要动力,其合理分布和有序流动对于推动长三角一体化和实现高质量发展具有重要意义。聚焦高校毕业生这一重要区域人才资源,基于毕业生就业质量报告数据,刻画长三角高校毕业生流动的空间格局,使用地理探测器探索城市创新等因素对毕业生流动的影响。研究结果表明：（1）长三角高校毕业生流动基本遵循随距离衰减和等级跃迁规律,区域内就业占比高达79.72%。江苏、浙江、安徽呈现出差异化的省内流动空间形态。（2）位于“Z”型发达地带和沿海的城市毕业生粘滞率较高,上海和与其紧邻的苏州、嘉兴、南通形成“高—高”区。（3）因子探测结果显示,创新因素对毕业生流动的驱动力较强,但按省域来看,驱动作用在江苏最强,浙江次之,而在安徽并不显著。风险探测显示,创新因素的驱动存在阈值效应。研究揭示了高校毕业生的流动格局及与城市创新的关系,为推动区域人才一体化政策的制定提供了理论和实证依据。

Spatial patterns and underlying forces of talent migration and their implications on integrated high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta: An analysis of university graduates

In 2018, the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta became a national strategy, aiming to break administrative barriers with integrated ideas and measures, and achieve the efficient flow of capital, talents, technology and other essential resources. As the main drive for innovation and knowledge-based economy, the reasonable allocation and orderly migration of talents are conducive to promoting regional integration and achieving high-quality development. Against this backdrop, this study focuses on the migration of university graduates, a vital component of regional talent resource. Based on data drawn from Graduate Employment Quality Report, we demonstrate the spatial patterns of graduate migration in the Yangtze River Delta and reveal the influencing factors underlying their migration by using the geographical detector model. The results show that the migration flow of graduates in the study area basically follows the law of reduction with the increase of distance and hierarchy, and the proportion of graduates who stayed and worked in the region reached 79.72%. The intra-provincial migration pattern is diversified in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces. Cities with a higher retention rate are located in the "Z"-shaped zone and coastal areas. Shanghai and its nearby cities (Suzhou, Jiaxing, and Nantong) have formed a "high-high" cluster with a high retention rate. Furthermore, the results of factor detector show that innovation factors play a stronger role in affecting graduate migration in the delta region. However, the effect of these innovation factors differs among Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, with the strongest effect found in Jiangsu, followed by Zhejiang, while the insignificant effect in Anhui. The results of risk detector show that once the level of innovation reaches a certain threshold, its effects on attracting university graduates increase substantially. This study reveals the relationship between the migration pattern of university graduates and regional innovation, which provides theoretical and empirical basis for formulating policies to promote regional talent integration.