农产品质量安全内部协调度和耦合度测算及影响因素分析

在讨论农产品质量安全内涵的基础上,构建了农产品数量安全和质量安全指标体系,基于熵值法、CRITIC法、Ganger因果检验和回归分析等方法,使用2005—2018年中国时序数据,测度农产品质量安全的耦合度和协调度,并对农产品质量安全内部协调度的农业要素投入和管制导向影响进行了研究。研究表明：农产品质量安全内部存在相对单向的扰动,属于数量安全高于质量安全的非均衡体系;农产品质量安全内部呈现出高度的内部耦合,但发展协调度不高;化学品投入和产业投入对农产品质量安全内部协调发展具有推动作用,其他要素投入影响不明显;管制导向对农产品质量安全内部协调度有积极影响,其中,农业支持保护补贴和地理标志农产品登记数量的正向影响最大。未来应该通过优化管制效能,不断提高技术投入等要素的投入效率。

Influence of agricultural factor input regulation on internal disturbance and coupling of agro-product quality and safety

On the basis of discussing the connotation of agro-product quality and safety, this paper constructs an index system of agro-product quantity safety and quality safety. Based on the methods of weight calculation and Ganger causality test, this paper analyzes the internal disturbance and coupling status of agro-product quality and safety by using China's time series data from 2005 to 2018, and examines the impact of agricultural factor input and regulation on the internal coordination degree of agro-product quality and safety. The results show that, firstly, there is a relatively unidirectional disturbance in agro-product quality and safety, and the internal system of agro-product quality and safety belongs to the unbalanced system in which the level of quantity safety is higher than that of quality safety; secondly, the internal coupling degree of agro-product quality and safety is high, but that of development coordination is not; thirdly, the chemical input and industrial input have a promoting effect on the internal coordinated development of agro-product quality and safety; fourthly, regulation has a positive impact on the internal coordination degree of agro-product quality and safety, and the positive impact of agricultural support and protection subsidies and the number of registrations of Agro-Product Geographical Indications is the largest. In the future, we should improve the input efficiency of technology input and other elements by optimizing the control efficiency.