长三角地区城市化对典型生态系统服务供需的影响

长三角地区快速城市化进程影响了生态系统服务供需的平衡关系,为实现长三角一体化高质量发展需要探究城市化对生态系统服务供需的影响。基于生态模型、Pearson相关性、随机森林、局部空间自相关等方法分析城市化和生态系统服务供需间的影响关系、敏感性与空间交互关系,提出生态管理措施。研究发现：2000—2018年间,长三角地区城市化综合水平上涨133.33%;各典型生态系统服务供需比均为正但均呈下降趋势,平均下降幅度22.39%;城市化对生态系统服务供需比具有显著的负向影响,2000—2018年间,影响强度平均上升82.34%;食物生产对人口城市化敏感性较强,碳储存和生境质量对经济城市化敏感性较强,水源涵养和PM_2.5去除则对空间城市化敏感性较强;城市化与生态系统服务供需比存在较大的空间错配性。由此建议将长三角地区划分为生态利用区、生态重构区、生态源地区和生态修复区,并结合城市化和生态系统服务供需特征提出生态优化管理措施。

Impact of urbanization on supply and demand of typical ecosystem services in Yangtze River Delta

The rapid urbanization process in the Yangtze River Delta has affected the balance between the supply and demand of ecosystem services. In order to realize the integrated and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta, it is necessary to explore the impact of urbanization on supply and demand of ecosystem services. Therefore, based on ecological model, Pearson correlation, random forest, local spatial autocorrelation and other methods, this paper analyzes the impact relationship, sensitivity and spatial interaction between urbanization and supply and demand of ecosystem services, and finally proposes ecological management measures. The study found that the comprehensive level of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 133.33% from 2000 to 2018; ESDR is positive but shows a decreasing trend, with an average decline rate of 22.39%; urbanization has a significant negative impact on ESDR, with an average increase of 82.34% from 2000 to 2018; food production is more sensitive to population urbanization, carbon storage and habitat quality are more sensitive to economic urbanization, and water conservation and PM_2.5 removal are more sensitive to spatial urbanization. There is a large spatial mismatch between urbanization and ESDR. Therefore, it is suggested to divide the Yangtze River Delta into ecological utilization area, ecological reconstruction area, ecological source area and ecological restoration area, and proposes ecological optimization management measures according to the characteristics of urbanization and supply and demand of ecosystem service.