长三角城市群水—能源—粮食系统压力的演变特征及其影响机制

城镇化的推进加剧资源消耗,水—能源—粮食（Water-Energy-Food）作为核心资源,是保障区域可持续发展的关键。以长三角城市群为例,构建WEF系统压力指数,揭示1990—2018年间长三角城市群WEF系统压力的演变特征,探讨城镇化推进对WEF系统压力的影响机制。结果显示：2010年后,随着长三角一体化进程加快,WEF系统压力明显加大,其中粮食压力猛增、水资源压力稳定、能源压力有所下降,但能源供应仍存缺口。各省市WEF系统压力及其变化特征与资源禀赋、经济发展和城镇化进程相关。城市空间扩展、人口集中、经济发展和居民消费显著影响长三角城市群WEF系统压力。因此,WEF系统管理应立足不同要素演变特征,同时加强不同部门及区域的协同管理,共同促进长三角城市群的可持续发展。

Evolution characteristic and influencing mechanism of water-energy-food stress in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The rapid urbanization intensified resources consumption. As the essential resources, the water-energy-food is the key for cities to achieve sustainable development. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRD) as an example, this study constructed the WEF system stress index (WEF_SI), revealed the evolution characteristics of WEF stress in the study area during 1990-2018, and explored the influencing mechanism of urbanization on the WEF stress. The results showed that: The WEF stress in the YRD increased significantly due to the accelerated integration process after 2010. Although its overall downward trend was obvious, the stress of energy was still the dominant stress on the WEF system. Water stress was stable overall, while food stress surged after 2010. Due to the difference of the resources endowment, economic development level and urbanization process, there were obvious differences in evolution characteristics of WEF stress within the YRD. Urban spatial expansion, urbanization rate, economic development level and residents' consumption significantly affected the WEF stress. Therefore, WEF system management should be based on the evolution characteristics of different resources. Moreover, we should strengthen the supervision of resources consumption and the synergy management among different sectors and regions to promote the sustainable development of the YRD.