海岛养殖户台风灾害适应性行为及其影响因素分析

水产养殖是保障粮食安全、提升适应力需要关注的关键部门之一。农户层面的灾害适应性行为及其影响因素研究对增强养殖户灾害适应能力,确保养殖户生计安全、海岛可持续发展和渔村振兴具有重要价值。基于海岛水产养殖户调查数据对养殖户灾害全过程适应性行为进行研究,并运用Multivariate Probit模型实证分析了适应性行为的影响因素,结果表明：（1）较多地采用无悔反应和低悔战术,很少采用预先应对策略、更容易的早期策略以及未来获益策略使得大多数养殖户适应行为的成效不太显著。（2）同一因素对养殖户选择的多种适应策略有正负不同方向的显著影响,不同适应策略之间也存在着显著的互补和替代效应。（3）年龄、家庭劳动力、5年遭灾次数是养殖户适应行为的重要影响因素,投入、健康状况、灾害感知强度、收入、教育程度、社会资本都对养殖户采取的适应行为有显著影响。（4）海岛地区养殖户灾害适应行为的影响因素及其影响方向具有特殊性。研究识别了海岛养殖户台风灾害适应行为的关键影响因子和薄弱环节,结论可为政府和养殖户灾害适应策略的优化调整提供依据。

Analysis of aquaculture farmers' adaptation behavior toward typhoon disaster in Zhoushan Islands and Dongtou Islands and its influencing factors

The IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5 °C and the IPCC special report on climate change and land both identify aquaculture as one of the key sectors that requires attention on global food security and the upgrading of adaptation policy. Research on the disaster-adaptive behavior and its influencing factors at the farmer level is of great value for enhancing the adaptive capacity to disasters, ensuring the livelihood of aquaculture farmers, and the sustainable development of islands, so as to revitalize fishing villages. However, very few studies have been conducted at the farmer level. Using survey data obtained from 202 aquaculture farmers from the Zhoushan and Dongtou Island regions and applying multivariate probit model, this study analyzes the disaster adaptation strategies of aquaculture farmers during the whole process of disaster management and the influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) Diverse multilevel adaptive strategies were adopted in study areas to deal with typhoon disaster. Up-front strategies, simple early strategies and future-benefits strategies were used significantly less than no-regret reaction and low-regret tactics by aquaculture farmers, making most farmers' adaptation strategies less effective. More than half of the farmers are willing to adopt the up-front, simple early and future-benefits strategies in the future if conditions facilitate usage of these strategies. (2) Each factor affected adaptation strategies of aquaculture farmers negatively and positively at the same time, and there was also significant complementary and substitutive relationship among the adaptive strategies selected by the aquaculture farmers. (3) Age, family labor, and the number of disasters occurring in the past 5 years were important factors influencing aquaculture farmers' adaptive behavior. Input, health status, disaster perception, income, education level, and social capital also had a significant impact on farmers' adaptive behavior. (4) Some influencing factors and their effects on the disaster adaptation behavior of aquaculture farmers in Zhoushan Islands and Dongtou Islands were different from those in other regions, which highlight the uniqueness of island regions. This study identifies the key influencing factors and weakness of adaptation behavior toward typhoon disaster, and the conclusions provide useful insight into the optimization and adjustment of the government and farmers' adaptation strategies.